Lunar-driven Marin Eco systems

A sustainable management of the Barents Sea ecosystem is dependent on the period- and phase-relation between lunar-driven biomass variability, and biomass management variability.

A sustainable management of the Barents Sea ecosystem is dependent on the period- and phase-relation between lunar-driven biomass variability, and biomass management variability.

 Management of marine eco systems is based on the simple idea: “To predict future biomass, to control the future biomass”. But is future biomass deterministic? If not, we can only explain the past, and future biomass is not controllable.

This research started in 1995. The research question was: “Is there a deterministic period in the Barents Sea marine eco system?”. If so, the period must have an external source. The biomass as an autonomous dynamic system, cannot produce stationary periods, by itself.

The research was presented on a number of international conferences and scientific journal in the time-period from 1996 to 2009. The results showed that:

  1. Sustainable management of the marin ecosystem is dependent on the period- and phase-relation between lunar-driven periods in the biomass variability and the quota variability.
  2. The marine eco system has a period- and phase-locked coincidence resonance to the stationary 18.6-year lunar-driven temperature period spectrum.
  3. The 18.6-year lunar temperature period spectrum is controlled by the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide.
  4. The 18.6-year lunar nodal tide is controlled by a mutual gravity between the Earth, the Moon and the Sun.

This mean that the Barents Sea eco system is predictable and controllable.

North Atlantic variability

The investigations of North Atlantic Water variability showed that:

  1. North Atlantic lunar nodal tides: Influences North Atlantic Water inflow to the Norwegian Sea. 
  2. North Atlantic Water inflow to the Norwegian Sea: Influences the climate and rainfall in Scandinavia and the Barents Sea temperature.
  3. The Barents Sea Kola-section temperature: Influences Arctic ice extent and the Barents Sea eco system recruitments. 
  4. The Arctic ice extent: Influences the North Atlantic Oscillation 
  5. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Influences the climate, the wether and rainfall in Scandinavia.
  6. Rainfall in Scandinavia: Influences the energy production in Scandinavia.

Barents Sea eco system

The investigations of Barents Sea eco system showed that:

  1. The plankton variability: Is period- and phase-locked to North Atlantic Water inflow, controlled by lunar tides.
  2. North Atlantic cod biomass variability: Is period- and phase-locked to plankton biomass variability. The biomass spanning period has at 18.6/3-year spawning period, in coincidence to  the 18.6-year temperature period. The biomass has an optimum spawning period by spawning 2 times in the warm period and 1 time in the cold period. The spawning period causes biomass fluctuations in periods of [18.6/3, 18.6, 3*18.6] years.
  3. The North Atlantic cod management: History records of biomass estimate introduces a 3-year phase-lag, that may cause a phase-reversal between biomass variability and estimated biomass variability. A 9 year phase-lag in quota management, causes  phase-reversal in management, that may lead to a biomass collapse.  
  4. Barents Sea capelin biomass variability:  Has a coincidence resonance to the 9.3-year tide. Capelin biomass spanning period has at 3-time coincidence to the 9.3-year tide, which causes a biomass variability of  [9.3/3, 9.3, 3*9.3] years. One generation of 9.3/3 = 3.1 years, has  a coincidence to a 9.3-year biomass period, which has a coincidence to a 9*9.3-year biomass period.
  5. The North Atlantic spring spawning haring variability: Has a coincidence resonance to the 9.3-year tide and the 18.6-year tide.

If this subject is of interest, you may download ICES conference papers and journal papers, written in the period 1996-2009.

References

  1. Yndestad, H. Stationary Temperature Cycles in the Barents Sea. The cause of causes. The 84th international ICES Annual Science Conference. Hydrography Committee. Iceland. October 1996.
    CP 1996 CP AW ICES Iceland
  2. Yndestad, H. Systems Dynamics of North Arctic Cod. The 84th international ICES Annual Science Conference. Hydrography. Committee. Iceland. October 1996.;
     CP 1996-0926 ICES Iceland Cod
  3. Yndestad, H. 1997. Systems Dynamics in the Fisheries of Northeast Arctic Cod. 15th International System Dynamics Conference (ISDC ´97). Istanbul. August 1997.; CP 1997-0819 ICSD Istanbul Cod
  4. Yndestad, H: 1999. Earth nutation influence on the temperature regime of the Barents Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science; 56; 381-387. 1999.;
    JP 1999 ICES NAW Temp
  5. Yndestad, H: 1999. Earth nutation influence on system dynamics of Northeast Arctic cod. ICES Journal of Marine Science; 56, 652-657. 1999. ; JP 1999 Ices JMS Cod 2
  6. Yndestad, H: 2000. The predestined fate. The Earth nutation as a forced oscillator on management of Northeast Arctic cod. The 18thInternational Conference of The System Dynamics Society. August 6-10, 2000. Bergen, Norway.;
    CP 2000-806 SD Bergen Fate
  7. Yndestad, H: 2001. Earth nutation influence on Northeast Arctic management. ICES Journal of Marine Science; 58; 799-805. 2001.; 
    JP 2001 ICES cod Man
  8. Yndestad, H: 2001. Tilstanden for Norsk Atlantisk torsk. Høgskolen I Ålesund. 2001 Ålesund.; 
    TN 02000_1_Tilstand
  9. Yndestad H and Stene. 2001. System Dynamics of Barents Sea Capelin. ICES Annual Science Conference. 26-29 September. 2001 Oslo.
    CP 2001-09 iCES Oslo Capelin
  10. Yndestad H and Stene A: 2002. Systems Dynamics of Barents Sea Capelin. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 59: 1155-1166.:
    JP 2002 ICES JMS Capelin
  11. Yndestad H. 2002. The Code of Norwegian spring spawning herring Long-term cycles. ICES Annual Science Conference. Oct 2002. Copenhagen.; CP 2002 0900 ICES CP Coben Herring
  12. Yndestad H: 2004. System Modeling of Biological time series in Mediterranean. Journal of Marine Systems 44 (2004) 107–124
  13. Yndestad H: 2003. A Lunar nodal spectrum in Arctic time series. ICES Annual Science Conference. Sept 2003. ICES CM 2003/T.
  14. Yndestad, Harald: 2003. System modeling of Biological time series in Mediterranean. CIESM Workshop on Mediterranean biological time series. 11-14 June 2003. Split. Croatia.; CP 2003 Ciesm split System
  15. Yndestad, H: 2003. The cause of biomass dynamics in the Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems. 44. 107-124.;
    JP 2002 System CausePaper
  16. Yndestad H. William R Turrell, Vladimir Ozhigin. 2004. Temporal linkages between the Faro-Shetland time series and the Kola section time series. ICES Annual Science conference in Vigo. September 09-22. 2004. Theme Session M. Regime Shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean: Coherent or Chaotic?
  17. Yndestad, Harald: 2004. Lunar nodal spectrum in the Barents Sea. ECOBE – CLIMAR – ADAPT, Norway GLOBEC Annual Meeting 16 February 2004. Bergen.
  18. Yndestad, Harald. 2004. The cause of Barents Sea biomass dynamics. Journal of Marine Systems 2004; Volume 44. (1-2) s.107-124.;
    JP 2003 MS Cause
  19. Yndestad, Harald. 2004. The code of the long-term biomass cycles in the Barents Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2004; Volume 60. (06) s.1251-1264.;
    JP 2003 Ices Code 2
  20. Yndestad, Harald. 2005. Lunar nodal cycle influence the Barents Sea. Annual Meating from the research program ECOBE, CLIMAR, ADAPT and GLOBEC. Bergen. 2005; 2005-02-15 – 2005-02-15.
  21. Yndestad, Harald. 2005. Lunar nodal spectrum in the Barents Sea.Dr.philos. avhandling 2004:132. Fakultet for samfunnsvitenskap og teknologiledelse Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, NTNU Trondheim.
    Thesis Yndestad
  22. Yndestad, Harald. 2006. The influence of the lunar nodal cycle on Arctic climate. ICES Journal of Marine Science 2006; Volume 63:401-420 (2006).JP 2006 ICES Arctic
  23. Yndestad, H: 2006. “The Arctic Ocean as a coupled oscillating system to the forced 18.6 yr. lunar nodal cycle”. 20 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences. American Meteorological Society & European Geosciences Union. Rhodes, Greece. June 11-16, 2006.
  24. Yndestad, H. 2006. Possible Lunar tide effects on climate and the ecosystem variability in the Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea. ICES annual conference. Session ICES CM 2006/C: Climatic variability in the ICES area 2000-2005 in relation to previous decades: physical and biological consequences 19-23 sept 2006. Maastricht, Netherland.:
     CP 2006 IMS Maastricht
  25. Yndestad, Harald. 2006. The Arctic Ocean as a coupled oscillating system to the forced 18.6 yr. lunar nodal cycle. 20 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences; 2006- 06-11 – 2006-06-16.; JP 2006 ICES Arctic
  26. Yndestad, H: 2007. Prognoser for tilsig til vannkraft. Rapport nr 2005/01. Høgskolen i Ålesund. TN 2006 tilsigBKK Report
  27. Yndestad, H: 2007. “The Arctic Ocean as a coupled oscillating system to the forced 18.6 yr. lunar nodal cycle”. Proceedings of 20 Years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences. American Meteorological Society & European Geosciences Union. USA. 2007
  28. Yndestad, H. 2007. Long tides influence on the climate dynamics and the ecosystem dynamics in the Barents Sea. Symposiumon Ecosystem Dynamics in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. Theme session: Climatic effects on food webs. Tromsø. Norway 12-15.th March 2007.ECONOR Symposium; 2007-03-12 – 2007-03- 15.;
     CP 2007 econor PaperYndestad071128 2
  29. Yndestad, Harald. 2007. The ECOBE project. Symposium on ecosystem dynamics in the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea; 2007-03-12 – 2007-03-15 HIALS: 
  30. Yndestad, Harald; Turrell, William R; Ozhigin, Vladimir. 2008. Lunar nodal tide effects on variability of sea level, temperature, and salinity in the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 2008; Volum 55.(10) s.1201-1217; JP 2008 DSR I NAW
  31. Yndestad, H. 2008. Long tides influence on the climate dynamics and the ecosystem dynamics in the Barents Sea. Symposiumon Ecosystem 25-26 August. Tromsø, Norway.
  32. Yndestad, H. 2008. The Barents Sea ecosystem dynamics as a coupled oscillator to long tides. Annual Science conference 22-26 September. 2008. Theme Session Coupled physical and biological models: parameterization, validation and application.  ICES CM 2008/L:01
    CP 2008 icesCM 2008L01 2
  33. Yndestad, Harald. 2009. The influence of long tides on ecosystem dynamics in the Barents Sea. Deep-sea research. Part II, Topical studies in oceanography 2009; Volum 56.(21-22) s.2108-2116;
    JP 2009 DSRII 2497_090924 2
  34. Yndestad, Harald. 2013. Torskebestand I År og Uår. Kommentarer til artikler Sunnmørsposten. TN 2013 SMP Torsk130508
  35. Yndestad, Harald. 2013. Klima i Vær og Uvær. Kommentarer til artikler Sunnmørsposten. TN 2013 Klima-Vaer-Uvaer
  36. Yndestad, Harald. 2016. The Barents Sea variability 1900-2100. The winter is coming. NTNU Ålesund 23.06.2016. TN 2016 TN-Kola
  37. Yndestad, Harald. 2019. The NAO winter Lunar variability. NTNU Ålesund. 08.01.2019. Ålesund. TN 190120 NAO Index
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