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In the ancient city of Babylon, astronomers noticed that the starry sky rotated slowly with a period of about 26000 years. At the same time, the position of the fixed stars varied. It was not until the 1700s that astronomer James Bradley (1693-1762) discovered that it was the direction of the earth’s axis that varied much like a spinning top. The Earth’s axis had a wobble that interfered with astronomers’ observations. In the 1800s, astronomers began to monitor this instability in the direction of the Earth’s axis. The direction of the Earth’s axis was influenced by the moon’s orbit over a period of 18.6 years.
The signature of the nut nation in the Barents Sea
In the 1990s, the period of 18.6 years was proven in the temperature and ecosystem of the Barents Sea. There was an unknown source that produces a temperature cycle of 18 years in the Barents Sea. A stationary period must have a stationary source. The question was whether the source could be the nutation of the earth’s axis. This could be clarified by identifying the signature of the nutation.
The nutation
The Earth’s axis has an inclined fescue of 23°27′. The angle of inclination towards the Moon varies +/- 5.14°(degrees) over a period of 18.6 years. The periodic change in gravity towards the Moon causes the direction of the Earth’s axis to change by about 9” over a period of 18.6 years. This nutation causes the pole to move about 300 meters over a period of 18.6 years. The movement propagates further, leading to a global movement of water masses.
The nutation signature
A signature analysis of the pole’s position from 1846 revealed that the nutation had a Lunar-driven signature with periods of about [1.2, 6, 18, 74] years. This revealed, probably for the first time, that the nut nation had a Lunar-driven spectrum.
Figure 2. Periods of 18.61 and 74.44 years.
Figure 2 shows the course of the nutation’s signature periods of 18.61 and 74.44 years for the years 1900 to 2000. The period of 74.44 years is negative from 1922-1960, positive from 1960-1997 and negative from 1967-2034. The two periods are negative in the warm climate period from 1937-1946 and a common minimum at the year 1941. The periods have a maximum during the cold climate period at the years 1969, 1978 and 1987.
The climate machine
The signature of the nut nation indicated that the nut nation drives a global mass movement in periods of about [1.2, 6, 18, 74] years. It is an energy source that moves global ocean currents, and ocean currents in the Arctic Ocean. The Nutation is the engine of a Lunar-powered Klima machine. The question then was whether the signature of the nut nation can be identified in a chain of events leading up to the inflow of warm Atlantic water into the Norwegian Sea.
Reference
- Yndestad H. (2006). The influence of the lunar nodal cycle on Arctic climate. ICES Journal. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 63: 401-420 (2006), doi:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.07.015.
Dear Harald,
“nut nation” – is a typo for “nutation.” ?
There are no “units” on the y-axis. Are the blue and yellow curves “normalised depictions”? Any idea how “strong” the influence of the two cycles on temperatures are, compared to each other?
You write, “The periods have a maximum during the cold climate period at 1969, 1978 and 1987.” This a bit confusing as it seems to mean coincidental maximums. I assume you actually mean that the short-period cycle (blue) had maximums at 1969 and 1987 while the long-period cycle (yellow) had a maximum at 1978. Extrapolating the cycles indicates : (1) the long-period cycle was at a minimum in 2015 and is still in negative territory; but its steady rise will cross it into positive territory in the mid 2030s, on the way up to a maximum in 2053, (2) the short-period cycle is at a maximum NOW and will trend downwards reaching negative territory in 20230, to reach a minimum in 2036. Is this what you expect? The two cycles will continue to fight each other to some extent. But both cycles will be simultaneously in negative or neutral territory, for much of the next fifteen years.
Regards
Dear Nigel
Thank you for your important questions
1. y-axis: The data series has an estimated signature (T, F). Where T represents identified cycle periods. F represents the period phase. The periods are calculated as a cos function that varies +/- 1.0. This signature can be followed further in a chain of events climate dataseriees.
2. In North Atlantic Water, the period of 74 years forms the mean temperature variations (Yndestad et al. 2008).
3. Yes, it’s strange. That is why the signature must be followed further (See attached reference). What is surprising here is the correlation with the turning point in global climate dataseries.
4. My study indicates that the periods of 18 and 74 have different influences on ocean currents.
5. This was published in the year 2006. The cycles have continued up to 2025.
Best regards
Harald
Dear Nigel.
I will try to answer some of your good questions
1. It can be explained as forced oscillators where the nutation is the energy source
2. Nutation drives the Arctic climate as a dynamic system that a luna spectrum
3. Nutation 18.6 -> Lunar tide 18.6 years -> SST sea temperature 18.6 is amplitude driven
4. Nutation 74 years -> 74 years Deep water (Arctic ocan) (pi/2 phase delayed) ->
global current -> 74 years SST (pi/2 phase delayed) -> 74 years extent of Arctic ice (pi/2 phase delayed).
I believe this is a standing current-driven climate period.
5. I have found lunar lunar-driver periods up t to 442 years (Yndestad 2022).
6. I can follow the periods up to 2025 in North Atlantic water.
A turning point at the year 2015.
My SST data shows that we can expect a new cold climate period in Northern Europe.
Best regards
Harald
Dear Harald,
I have now read your paper of 2005, and so I understand better that your theory of the causation of polar position nutation does NOT permit simple superposition of the driving cycle, from the moon’s orbit, and its stimulated, “emergent” harmonics and sub-harmonics,* in the recorded polar oscillations. Simple superposition, in the manifestations at another step removed, in climate series, is even more difficult. My question about the relative power of the cycles becomes meaningless when there are indirect cybernetic controls. These reversals of phase, and the transients involved, are dizzying! Especially if there is a cycle longer than 74 years, at work. As the paper is now 20 years old I can not work out what predictions are possible, for 2025 to 2035, from the spectra shown in that paper.** Is the minimum of the 74-year cycle in 2015 causing a phase reversal in the 18.6 cycle? The practical question for Europe’s climate is: what is likely as a result of the moon, “warm,” “cold,” “neutral”?
I am lost!
*With unvarying amplitudes and phases and a “beats” phenomenon.
**Becaue the “stationary” appearance of the time-cycles is spurious. Or at least hides a more complicated structure.
Regards,
Nigel
Thanks Harald,
The only question you did not seem to answer was the one where I wondered if the Minimum of the 74-year cycle in 2015 might have caused a Pi change of phase in the 18.6-year cycle?
In the old book of Dewey and Dakin on Business Cycles (which I first read more than fifty years ago; Yikes!) there were some examples of reversal of relationships, flipping from positive correlation to negative correlation for a few cycles, and then back again. The times of reversal showed as a small-amplitude feature in the cycle being modulated. Rather like when you “come about” in a sail-boat and the sails shiver and flap before, bellying out and driving you in the new direction. A careful sailor chooses a moment when the wind has faltered before changing from sailing with the wind to sailing against the wind.
Regards
Interesting examples from oceanography of complicated “forcing” are (1) the way in which travelling storm waves of high frequency turn into travelling swell waves of low frequency at a distance; (2) the creation of standing wave seiches of low frequency in a constrained environment, resulting from interaction with wind-waves. This second phenomenon of seiches seems very relevant to the idea of cryptic* “world tides” in which pychnoclines result in very-long-term “sloshing” of water from poles to equator and back.
Incidentally, seiche-related effects provide a possible explanation for the legends of strange creatures in the Lochs of Scotland (e.g. “Nessie”) and in the Lakes of Norway (e.g. “Selma”)
*The idea that a fundamental frequency can exist in a phenomenon, but mainly be noticed by its harmonics and sub-harmonics is “cool.”